By Chief Investment Officer Tom Kelly, CFA.
It is that time again. Political ads inundate your commercial breaks and news feeds. Elections are about a month away, with the focus being the battle for the White House. Every four years, we get the same question (whether you have asked it, or you are thinking it) – how will the election affect my portfolio?
For SJS, this is the eighth time we have been through this cycle and our answer has not changed – we do not know! It is not that we do not care, we just rely on the core fundamentals of MarketPlus® Investing as our guide:
Markets are efficient and are priced fairly.
Speculating is futile.
Global markets have rewarded investors over the long term.
Portfolio design matters most.
The markets – stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, you name it – are all considering millions of data points, such as growth prospects, geopolitical challenges and opportunities, and yes, even who holds the White House and how that might affect the markets. But all that information is incorporated in the prices, both the prospects of risk and reward. That does not mean that prices are always right, but that you are being fairly compensated for the risk you take. Over time we believe investors are rewarded, and assuming appropriate portfolio design and diversification, this can assist in achieving your investing goals.
As things stand, the election odds for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are roughly 50% / 50%, but come November 5th, those odds will end at 100% / 0% or 0% / 100% (barring some undetermined swing states). We will likely see some volatility leading up to and potentially even after the election, as markets weigh new developments. Take courage along the way, knowing we have designed your portfolios to navigate any political environment, and we will be there to adjust whenever the time comes.
Source: Morningstar, as of September 30, 2024. There is no guarantee investment strategies will be successful. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification neither assures a profit nor guarantees against a loss in a declining market. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio. Index performance is measured in US dollars. The index performance figures assume the reinvestment of all income, including dividends and capital gains. The S&P 500 Index is a free float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. See Important Disclosure Information.
Important Disclosure Information:
There is no guarantee investment strategies will be successful. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification neither assures a profit nor guarantees against a loss in a declining market.
Statements contained in this report that are not statements of historical fact are intended to be and are forward looking statements. Forward looking statements include expressed expectations of future events and the assumptions on which the expressed expectations are based. All forward looking statements are inherently uncertain as they are based on various expectations and assumptions concerning future events and they are subject to numerous known and unknown risks and uncertainties which could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those projected.
Advisory services are provided by SJS Investment Services, a registered investment advisor (RIA) with the SEC. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. SJS Investment Services does not provide legal or tax advice. Please consult your legal or tax professionals for specific advice.